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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 76

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(11:25) 5-M.Scifres punts 42 yards to LV 34, Center-47-M.Windt. 38-T.Carrie to LV 46 for 12 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

The Three Options

GO -1.61 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.75 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 76, worth -4.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model