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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 20 at the 52

Las Vegas Raiders 37 – Los Angeles Chargers 6

What Actually Happened

(7:01) 7-M.King punts 37 yards to LAC 15, Center-59-J.Condo, downed by LV-22-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.86 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 52, worth -2.91 EP
KICK -1.73 EP
  • 23% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 77% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model