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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 16 at the 44

Las Vegas Raiders 37 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-59-J.Condo, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +2.57 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -1.97 EP
KICK -0.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP