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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 10

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:23) 11-S.Janikowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.45 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 10, worth -0.25 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP