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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Washington Commanders 7

What Actually Happened

(3:02) 5-J.Schum punts 49 yards to WAS 29, Center-48-A.DePaola. 80-J.Crowder to WAS 33 for 4 yards (51-D.Lansanah).

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.27 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 78, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 35, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model