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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 65

Washington Commanders 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to TB 13, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 43-B.Rainey to TB 25 for 12 yards (22-D.Everett, 54-M.Foster).

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.25 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 65, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 23, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP