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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 2 at the 4

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(5:10) 10-C.Barth 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-A.DePaola, Holder-5-J.Schum.

The Three Options

GO +2.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.13 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 4, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -1.02 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP