4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 12 at the 66

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(12:37) (Punt formation) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to CLE 16, Center-82-M.Leach. 11-T.Benjamin ran ob at CLE 28 for 12 yards (20-D.Bucannon).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.50 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 66, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 24, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model