Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 4 at the 86

Cleveland Browns 20 – Arizona Cardinals 7

(:36) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 41 yards to ARI 45, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-P.Peterson to 50 for 5 yards (58-C.Kirksey).

The Three Options

GO -2.04 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.23 EP
52% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 86, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model