4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 20 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(14:02) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 53 yards to ARI 23, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-P.Peterson to ARI 29 for 6 yards (24-J.Bademosi).

The Three Options

GO -2.42 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.17 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.34 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model