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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 70

Cleveland Browns 20 – Arizona Cardinals 17

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 56 yards to ARI 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 21-P.Peterson to CLE 48 for 38 yards (34-I.Crowell).

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 28, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model