Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 67

Cleveland Browns 20 – Arizona Cardinals 34

(1:11) (Shotgun) 2-J.Manziel pass incomplete short right to 11-T.Benjamin (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP

What Happened

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.13 EP
66% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 67, worth -1.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose GO ✓ matched the model