4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 83

Detroit Lions 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(8:03) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 52 yards to KC 31, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to KC 25 for -6 yards (26-D.Carey; 38-G.Winn).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 74, worth +0.52 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -5.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 41, worth -2.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model