4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 12 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 31 – Detroit Lions 3

What Actually Happened

(3:41) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 46 yards to DET 10, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

The Three Options

GO -0.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +3.15 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 56, worth -2.66 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 17, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model