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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 4 at the 85

Detroit Lions 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 31

What Actually Happened

(11:12) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to KC 47, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to DET 16 for 37 yards (48-D.Muhlbach).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.52 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -4.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.26 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 43, worth -2.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model