4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 17

Detroit Lions 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(9:13) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +0.74 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.42 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model