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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 2 at the 72

Detroit Lions 10 – Kansas City Chiefs 45

What Actually Happened

(5:50) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 44 yards to KC 28, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to KC 33 for 5 yards (95-B.Copeland).

The Three Options

GO -0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.18 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 72, worth -3.96 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.10 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 30, worth -1.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model