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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 80

Detroit Lions 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(3:21) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to KC 29, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to KC 29 for no gain (26-D.Carey).

The Three Options

GO -1.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.61 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.33 EP
What Happened
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -2.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP