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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 14 at the 80

Detroit Lions 3 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to KC 27, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 13-D.Thomas to KC 27 for no gain (38-G.Winn).

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.32 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 80, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 37, worth -2.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model