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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 87

Carolina Panthers 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(14:49) 8-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to IND 44, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +1.11 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 87, worth -4.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 45, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model