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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 29

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(10:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.07 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 29, worth -1.81 EP
KICK +0.62 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.68 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP