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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:08) 4-A.Vinatieri 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.28 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 16, worth -1.13 EP
KICK +1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.72 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model