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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 3 at the 53

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(2:39) 1-P.McAfee punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.29 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP