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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 21

Carolina Panthers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 9-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.31 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.39 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.51 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 31, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model