Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 16 at the 86

Indianapolis Colts 6 – Carolina Panthers 17

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 1-P.McAfee punts 52 yards to CAR 34, Center-45-M.Overton. 19-T.Ginn to CAR 34 for no gain (32-C.Anderson). PENALTY on CAR-21-T.Williams, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at CAR 34.

The Three Options

GO -3.31 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.33 EP
73% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 86, worth -5.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model