Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 17 at the 83

Carolina Panthers 17 – Indianapolis Colts 6

(12:39) 8-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to IND 30, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Hilton to IND 23 for -7 yards (21-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO -2.99 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.41 EP
71% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 83, worth -4.79 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model