Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 75

Carolina Panthers 23 – Indianapolis Colts 13

(4:51) 8-B.Nortman punts 38 yards to IND 37, Center-44-J.Jansen. 13-T.Hilton to IND 43 for 6 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 75, worth -4.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model