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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 3

Carolina Panthers 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 28-J.Stewart left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Amini Silatolu reported as eligible

The Three Options

GO +4.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.39 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 3, worth +0.66 EP
KICK +2.56 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
PUNT +0.35 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model