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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 46

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Carolina Panthers 10

What Actually Happened

(4:44) 1-P.McAfee punts 42 yards to CAR 4, Center-45-M.Overton, downed by IND-10-D.Moncrief.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.19 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
KICK -1.41 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model