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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 7 at the 52

New England Patriots 9 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(12:49) 6-R.Allen punts 45 yards to MIA 7, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 6 for -1 yards (18-M.Slater).

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.95 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 52, worth -2.68 EP
KICK -1.72 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.62 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model