Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 61

New England Patriots 9 – Miami Dolphins 0

(9:53) 6-R.Allen punts 38 yards to MIA 23, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 27 for 4 yards (43-N.Ebner).

The Three Options

GO -1.47 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.02 EP
71% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 61, worth -3.34 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model