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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 5 at the 34

New England Patriots 9 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(3:29) 3-S.Gostkowski 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3-Gostkowski 25th consecutive FG, ties franchise record (Vinatieri)

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.01 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 34, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.51 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP