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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 49

New England Patriots 22 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 6-R.Allen punts 37 yards to MIA 12, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.57 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
KICK -1.47 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.32 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 14, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model