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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 23

Miami Dolphins 7 – New England Patriots 36

What Actually Happened

(4:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 80-D.Sims to NE 17 for 6 yards (22-J.Coleman).

The Three Options

GO +1.38 EP
What Happened
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.52 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 23, worth -0.64 EP
KICK +1.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.36 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.44 EP