4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 62

New England Patriots 36 – Miami Dolphins 7

What Actually Happened

(1:24) 6-R.Allen punts 57 yards to MIA 5, Center-49-J.Cardona. 14-J.Landry to MIA 11 for 6 yards (36-B.King).

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.19 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 62, worth -2.42 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 21, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP