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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 14 at the 58

Miami Dolphins 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(4:55) 4-M.Darr punts 43 yards to NE 15, Center-92-J.Denney. 80-D.Amendola to NE 15 for no gain (30-Z.Bowman).

The Three Options

GO -1.64 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.78 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 58, worth -3.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 18, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model