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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 16 at the 44

New England Patriots 7 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 6-R.Allen punts 35 yards to MIA 9, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 14-J.Landry.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.34 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 44, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.86 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 49, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model