Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 5 at the 75

New Orleans Saints 0 – New York Giants 0

(13:50) 6-T.Morstead punts 48 yards to NYG 27, Center-47-J.Drescher. 17-D.Harris to NYG 40 for 13 yards (33-J.Sanford).

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.02 EP
53% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 75, worth -4.19 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model