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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 2

New York Giants 0 – New Orleans Saints 0

What Actually Happened

(9:43) (Shotgun) 10-E.Manning pass short right to 13-O.Beckham Jr. for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Pass 1, YAC 1

The Three Options

GO +3.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.82 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 2, worth +0.15 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model