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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 1 at the 71

New Orleans Saints 42 – New York Giants 49

What Actually Happened

(5:51) (Run formation) 22-M.Ingram right guard to NO 31 for 2 yards (47-U.Unga).

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.17 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 71, worth -4.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.20 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 29, worth -1.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model