Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 5 at the 75

New York Giants 49 – New Orleans Saints 49

What Actually Happened

(:20) 9-B.Wing punts 46 yards to NO 29, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 23-M.Murphy to NYG 47 for 24 yards (43-C.Dahl). FUMBLES (43-C.Dahl), recovered by NO-83-W.Snead at NYG 47. 83-W.Snead to NYG 47 for no gain (9-B.Wing). PENALTY on NYG-9-B.Wing, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at NYG 47. The ball was fumbled FORWARD, and ruled down at the 47 yardline. The penalty for a face mask moved it to the 32.

The Three Options

GO -0.55 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.21 EP
53% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 75, worth -1.23 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model