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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 73

New York Jets 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(8:03) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to LV 32, Center-46-T.Purdum. 38-T.Carrie to LV 45 for 13 yards (57-T.Reilly). Penalty on LV-22-T.Jones, Offensive Holding, declined. PENALTY on LV-25-D.Hayden, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LV 32.

The Three Options

GO -1.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 73, worth -4.36 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 31, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP