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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 8 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 21 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(2:18) 11-S.Janikowski 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-59-J.Condo, Holder-7-M.King.

The Three Options

GO +0.37 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.22 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 34, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 44, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model