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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 20

New York Jets 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 21

What Actually Happened

(:44) #79 B.Qvale, #78 L.Douzable, #60 D.Ferguson reported as Eligible. 2-N.Folk 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.61 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.58 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 20, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +2.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.57 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model