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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 22

New York Jets 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(7:21) 2-N.Folk 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

The Three Options

GO +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.45 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP