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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 38

New York Jets 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 34

What Actually Happened

(5:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 10-K.Thompkins. Penalty on NYJ-66-W.Colon, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO +0.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.50 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 38, worth -1.63 EP
KICK +0.22 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 47, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model