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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 34 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(4:49) 7-M.King punts 44 yards to NYJ 18, Center-59-J.Condo, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.08 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.07 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model