Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 79

New York Jets 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 34

(3:30) 4-R.Quigley punts 52 yards to LV 27, Center-46-T.Purdum. 38-T.Carrie to LV 31 for 4 yards (58-E.Henderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.91 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.03 EP
58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 79, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model