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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 87

New York Jets 20 – Las Vegas Raiders 34

What Actually Happened

(1:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep middle to 87-E.Decker to NYJ 34 for 21 yards (42-L.Asante).

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.12 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 87, worth -3.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -1.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 45, worth -1.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.12 EP