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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 23

Baltimore Ravens 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(7:33) (Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short left to 11-K.Aiken to LAC 20 for 3 yards (24-B.Flowers).

The Three Options

GO +2.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.58 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.63 EP
  • 85% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.35 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model